2011年11月3日星期四

'Mood darkens' in finance sector

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3 October 2011 Last updated at 07:13 GMT A man looks through the early morning haze across to Canary Wharf Financial services firms expect more challenging conditions, the survey said Financial services firms are expected to cut jobs in the next three months after recent volatility on the stock markets "darkened the mood" in the sector, a report has said.

The PricewaterhouseCoopers and CBI survey said that in the three months to September growth in the sector was at its slowest pace since June 2010.

A further slowdown is expected in the coming quarter, the study said.

Sentiment has fallen for the first time since March 2009.

For the first time in two years, firms expect no improvement in profitability.

Numbers employed rose modestly in the most recent quarter, but are expected to fall by the end of the year.

"The recovery in the financial services sector is continuing, but the pace of growth has slowed compared with earlier in the year," said Ian McCafferty, the CBI's chief economic adviser.

"After a torrid couple of months on global financial markets, the mood has clearly darkened. Uncertainty about future demand, worries about the global recovery and shifting regulatory sands are weighing on sentiment.

"With business volumes predicted to slow further and little growth in income expected, firms are planning to reduce their headcount in the next quarter."


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Icelandic doubts about the euro

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29 September 2011 Last updated at 23:07 GMT By Paul Henley BBC News, Iceland Formal negotiations for Iceland to join the EU come in the middle of the eurozone crisis

Bombarded as Europeans are, these days, by news of economic disaster in the eurozone, few would expect countries to be queuing up to adopt the single currency.

But in Iceland, which this summer opened formal negations to become a member of the EU, the troubled currency remains the big attraction.

"Compared to the Icelandic krona, the euro is like a rock in the sea, you know," is how Gylvi Arnbjoernsson, president of the Icelandic Confederation of Labour, puts it.

He represents an impressive 85% of his country's workers, and he firmly believes joining the EU would benefit them.

"This is partly because we are already members of the European Economic Area (EEA) and enjoying, and also meeting, the challenges of Europe," he says.

"And it is also because the stability of the euro is such that it would be better than the fluctuations of our own currency.

"For the last 50 years in Iceland, the krona has been used to transfer wealth, every 10 years or so, from the workers to the employers, the companies."

In the aftermath of Iceland's big economic crash of 2008, EU membership was suddenly an attractive prospect to many Icelanders - probably a majority of them - because of the safety-in-numbers it seemed to offer.

But times have changed.

Not only are Icelanders taking note of the increasingly frantic efforts of politicians in countries hundreds of kilometres away to save the euro, they are finding that their own financial circumstances constitute less of an emergency.

The conditions attached to their bailout by the IMF seem comparatively lenient.

The new government of 2009 was allowed to carry on borrowing and spending for another year before the cuts kicked in.

In the meantime, devaluation - something impossible for eurozone members - meant all-important exports suddenly became competitive again. Unemployment is already falling.

Many people's mortgages were quietly "re-negotiated" by the newly nationalised banks. The richest 5-7% of the population have been subjected to a new wealth tax.

The welfare state and the health service were shielded from the biggest savings and public sector workers have recently been awarded an above-inflation wage rise.

Opinion polls suggest a clear majority of Icelanders now oppose joining the EU and the finance minister, overseeing all these changes, is among them.

Steingrimur Sigfusson says his country's size has been crucial in the move towards recovery: "You are quicker turning a small boat around than a big ship.

"And that is, I think, what is being proven: that the small, vibrant Icelandic economy, including having our own currency, makes adapting quicker."

Fisheries obstacle

The biggest sticking point for those currently negotiating the possible terms of Iceland's EU membership will undoubtedly be fishing rights.

Iceland owns the rights to 200 nautical miles around its shores.

It fishes and manages them exclusively, sustaining stocks upon which it relies for 70% of its total export business. Gone are the days when banking was Iceland's biggest business.

In the determined fishing community of the Westmann Islands, off the south coast of Iceland, the resistance seems unanimous to any change that might bring EU boats within reach of these waters.

A population of about 4,000, sheltered by intimidating cliffs - black and sheer - in what is the windiest inhabited place on Earth, relies on year-round catches of cod, mackerel and scampi.

Sigmar Oskarsson remembers the Cod Wars with the British in the 1970s, when Iceland last demonstrated the strength of its resistance to foreign fishing fleets.

He is a youthful-looking fisherman of 50, as sceptical as all his colleagues about the idea of EU membership.

"Icelandic fishermen want to keep their jobs," he says.

"We know from our Scottish colleagues how difficult it can be when other nationalities, like the Spanish, fish their grounds.

"We are good at catching fish and good at protecting them. We have been good at it for a hundred years and we want to keep going, to live on fish."

Neither he nor his bosses at the local fishing company go into detail about the fact that Icelandic concerns own substantial amounts of the fishing and fish processing industries in other EU countries, particularly the UK and Germany.

Such extensive foreign involvement would not be allowed under Icelandic law, so it is not as if there is already a level playing field.

Splendid isolation

As the pro and anti campaigns hot up in preparation for a referendum on EU membership, Icelanders will most likely continue to consider themselves a special case.

And their unique isolation within Europe might well prove be too precious an asset for them to compromise.

One of Iceland's most successful artistic exports, the film director and actor Baltasar Kormakur (101 Reykjavik, Jar City), puts it like this when I meet him in a cafe during the city's film festival: "We actually take it for granted that we will get a different treatment from other nationalities.

"We will always be the special kid in the class because we're small. We're not that important. We're like: 'You can't do that to us, you can't take our fish'."

He adds: "It's really hard to beat somebody up who seems too weak to be beaten up."


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2011年11月2日星期三

Italy's credit rating is slashed

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5 October 2011 Last updated at 06:40 GMT Silvio Berlusconi The Italian Prime Minister said he had been expecting the announcement from Moody's The Italian government's credit rating has been slashed by Moody's from Aa2 to A2 with a negative outlook.

The ratings agency blamed a "material increase in long-term funding risks for the euro area", due to lost confidence in eurozone government debts.

Despite Rome's low current borrowing needs, and low private-sector debt levels in Italy, Moody's said market sentiment had turned against the euro.

Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said the decision was expected.

"The Italian government is working with the maximum commitment to achieve its budget objectives," said Mr Berlusconi.

He said that a plan to balance the government's budget by 2013 had been approved by the European Commission.

Sell-off

The initial market reaction to the downgrade was muted.

The news broke half an hour after the close of trading on the New York Stock Exchange.

But after-hours trading in stock market futures suggested that at least one percentage point of a late 4% market rally may have been wiped off.

Asian trading was mixed, with stocks initially surging after a report in the Financial Times that EU finance ministers were considering a plan to recapitalise European banks.

Continue reading the main story
The downgrading by Moody's of Italy's credit rating could not have come at a worse time for the eurozone”

End Quote image of Robert Peston Robert Peston Business editor, BBC News In Japan, stocks on the Nikkei index lost early gains to close down 0.86%. South Korea's main market lost 2.33%. Australian shares ended 1.40% higher.

Stock markets in Hong Kong and mainland China were closed for a holiday.

Oil prices were trading higher in Asia on hopes that efforts by European authorities to contain the eurozone crisis would prevent the world economy from slowing.

Brent crude for November delivery bounced back above $100 a barrel, rising $1.83 to $101.62.

Slow response

Analysts say Italy's downgrade is likely to be followed by similar cuts in the credit rating of Italy's banks, which would put severe pressure on their ability to borrow.

"This downgrade will make it even harder for Italy to borrow," says BBC business editor Robert Peston. "However, that is not the worst of it.

"If Italy is looking like a more risky place to lend, its banks... will find it harder and more expensive to borrow. The [eurozone] banking crisis will be exacerbated."

The rationale for Moody's downgrade will also be worrying for other eurozone governments, such as Spain, whose borrowing costs have also risen like Italy's as markets have lost confidence in their creditworthiness.

Moody's also raised warnings about Italy's growth outlook, citing structural economic problems in Italy, as well as the global economic slowdown.

Another problem noted by the rating agency was what it called political and economic "implementation risks".

"The question is, if [eurozone governments] will move fast enough... to really put in place a credible solution," says Robert Peston.

Continue reading the main story Use the dropdown for easy-to-understand explanations of key financial terms:AAA-rating GO The best credit rating that can be given to a borrower's debts, indicating that the risk of borrowing defaulting is miniscule.An expansion of the eurozone's bailout fund already approved by the euro's 17 governments in July - which is now seen by markets as inadequate - has still yet to be ratified by all the national parliaments.

The slow political response to the emerging crisis, necessitated by the European Union's institutional set-up, has been criticised by many commentators, including European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso.

In hock

However the key issue for Moody's was the change in the market's attitude towards eurozone government debts.

The Italian government has for several years earned more in tax revenues than it spends. However, the government also has a large outstanding debt - equivalent to nearly 120% of GDP.

The government relies heavily on the markets' willingness to relend these debts as they come due, and to lend it the cost of meeting its interest payments.

Moody's said that Italy could be further downgraded to "substantially lower rating levels" if a further deterioration in investor sentiment made it even harder for the country to raise cash from the markets.

Italy's cost of borrowing rose sharply over the summer on market fears that a slowdown in Italian growth could make existing debts unsustainable.

That prompted the European Central Bank to intervene by buying up Italy's debts - a controversial policy in Germany. But despite the ECB's action, Italian borrowing costs have begun to creep up again in recent weeks.


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Yahoo! surges on takeover rumour

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5 October 2011 Last updated at 21:40 GMT Yahoo's website Yahoo is one of the internet's best-known brands Shares in the internet portal firm Yahoo have leapt 10% on rumours that Microsoft is considering a second attempt at a takeover.

Microsoft, which last bid in 2008, joins a host of other companies which are considering buying Yahoo, one of the internet's best-known brands.

China's giant internet company Alibaba has already said it might buy Yahoo.

Rumours of a bid from Vodafone also pushed shares in BlackBerry maker, Research in Motion, 12% higher.

Yahoo shares jumped 10.1% to close at $15.92 and Microsoft shares ended 2.2% higher at $25.89.

Yahoo's current market value is $20bn (£13bn), compared with Microsoft's previous bid of around $45bn.

Neither party has made any official comment.

Microsoft is said to be divided as to whether it would make sense to mount such a bid.

Reasons in favour include the ability to beat AOL as a competitor by creating a stronger web portal.

Market share

Microsoft already has an agreement with Yahoo involving its Bing internet search engine, which powers Yahoo's search but gives 88% of advertising revenue back to Yahoo.

Combing the two could give Yahoo 30% of the US search market, according to analysts.

According to the latest figures from research firm comScore, Google has 64.8% of the US search market, Yahoo has 16.3% and Microsoft 14.7%.

But Yahoo is seen as lacking in growth potential.

Early last month, Yahoo fired its chief executive in a row over the company's future direction.

It said last month that it had received "inbound interest" from a number of parties.

Sid Parakh, analyst at fund firm McAdams Wright Ragen, told the Reuters news agency: "There are many reasons why this thing probably makes sense.

"If you strip out the variety of assets Yahoo owns, you are pretty much paying nothing for the core business."


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Battle of the knowledge superpowers

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28 September 2011 Last updated at 11:04 GMT By Sean Coughlan BBC News education correspondent Giant technology cluster, Grenoble "Knowledge clusters" are being built in France to kick start hi-tech industries Knowledge is power - economic power - and there's a scramble for that power taking place around the globe.

In the United States, Europe and in rising powers such as China, there is a growth-hungry drive to invest in hi-tech research and innovation.

They are looking for the ingredients that, like Google, will turn a university project into a corporation. They are looking for the jobs that will replace those lost in the financial crash.

Not to invest would now be "unthinkable", says Maire Geoghegan-Quinn, the European Commissioner responsible for research, innovation and science, who is trying to spur the European Union to keep pace in turning ideas into industries.

She has announced £6bn funding to kick-start projects next year - with the aim of supporting 16,000 universities, research teams and businesses. A million new research jobs will be needed to match global rivals in areas such as health, energy and the digital economy.

'Innovation emergency'

Emphasising that this is about keeping up, rather than grandstanding, she talks about Europe facing an "innovation emergency".

"In China, you see children going into school at 6.30am and being there until 8 or 9pm, concentrating on science, technology and maths. And you have to ask yourself, would European children do that?

Maire Geoghegan Quinn Maire Geoghegan-Quinn: "The knowledge economy is the economy that is going to create the jobs"

"That's the competition that's out there. We have to rise to that - and member states have to realise that the knowledge economy is the economy that is going to create the jobs in the future, it's the area they have to invest in."

But the challenge for Europe, she says, is to be able to commercialise ideas as successfully as the United States, in the manner of the iPhone or Facebook.

The commissioner says that she was made abruptly aware of the barriers facing would-be innovators at the Nobel Prize awards ceremony dinner.

Instead of basking in the reflected glory of a prize winner funded by European grants, she said she had to listen to a speech attacking the red-tape and bureaucracy - and "generally embarrassing the hell out of me".

Determined that this would never happen again, she is driving ahead with a plan to simplify access to research funding and to turn the idea of a single European research area into a reality by 2014.

With storm clouds dominating the economic outlook, she sees investing in research and hi-tech industries - under the banner of the "Innovation Union" - as of vital practical importance in the push towards creating jobs and growth.

"We have to be able to say to the man and woman in the street, suffering intensely because of the economic crisis: this is a dark tunnel, but there is light at the end and we're showing you where it is."

Global forum

There has been sharpening interest in this borderland between education and the economy.

This month the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) staged its inaugural Global Forum on the Knowledge Economy.

Continue reading the main story Giant technology cluster, Grenoble

GIANT - the Grenoble Innovation for Advanced New Technologies - is an ambitious French example of a knowledge cluster, combining academic research and commercial expertise.

The classic examples have been in California and Boston in the US, and around Cambridge in the UK. Purpose-built centres include Education City in Qatar, Science City in Zurich and Digital Media City in Seoul.

There will be 40,000 people living, studying and working on the GIANT campus. Centres of research excellence will be side-by-side with major companies who will develop the commercial applications. This includes nanotechnology, green energy and the European Synchotron Radiation Facility (pictured above). A business school, the Grenoble Ecole de Management, is also part on site.

This hi-tech version of a factory town will have its own transport links and a green environment designed to attract people to live and stay here.

This was a kind of brainstorming for governments living on a shoestring.

The UK's Universities Minister, David Willetts, called for a reduction in unnecessary regulation, which slowed down areas such as space research.

The French response has been to increase spending, launching a £30bn grand project to set up a series of "innovation clusters" - in which universities, major companies and research institutions are harnessed together to create new knowledge-based industries.

It's an attempt to replicate the digital launchpad of Silicon Valley in California. And in some ways these are the like mill towns of the digital age, clustered around science campuses and hi-tech employers.

But the knowledge economy does not always scatter its seed widely. When the US is talked about as an innovation powerhouse, much of this activity is based in narrow strips on the east and west coasts.

A map of Europe measuring the number of patent applications shows a similar pattern - with high concentrations in pockets of England, France, Germany and Finland.

There are also empty patches - innovation dust bowls - which will raise tough political questions if good jobs are increasingly concentrated around these hi-tech centres. The International Monetary Fund warned last week that governments must invest more in education to escape a "hollowing out" of jobs.

Speed of change

Jan Muehlfeit, chairman of Microsoft Europe, explained what was profoundly different about these new digital industries - that they expand at a speed and scale that would have been impossible in the traditional manufacturing industries.

Governments trying to respond to such quicksilver businesses needed to ensure that young people were well-educated, creative and adaptable, he said.

As an example of a success story, Mr Muehlfeit highlighted South Korea. A generation ago they deliberately invested heavily in raising education standards. Now, as a direct result of this upskilling, the West is importing South Korean cars and televisions, he said.

Continue reading the main story
The triangle of innovation, education and skills is of extreme importance, defining both the problem and the solution”

End Quote Jose Angel Gurria OECD secretary general Perhaps it is not a coincidence that South Korea's government has its own dedicated knowledge economy minister.

Robert Aumann, a Nobel Prize winner in economics, attending the OECD event, also emphasised this link between the classroom and the showroom. "How do you bring about innovation? Education, education, education," he said.

But this is far from a case of replacing jobs in old rusty industries with new hi-tech versions.

Gordon Day, president of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, the US-based professional association for technology, made the point that digital businesses might generate huge incomes but they might not employ many people. In some cases they might only have a payroll one tenth of a traditional company of a similar size.

It's an uncomfortable truth for governments looking for a recovery in the jobs market.

Degrees of employment

But standing still isn't an option.

Figures released from the OECD have shown how much the financial crisis has changed the jobs market.

Shanghai graduation ceremony Class of 2011 in Shanghai: China now has the second biggest share of the world's graduates

There were 11 million jobs lost, half of them in the United States, and with low-skilled workers and manufacturing the hardest hit. If those losses are to be recovered, it is going to be with higher-skilled jobs, many of them requiring degrees.

But graduate numbers show the shifting balance of power.

From a standing start, China now has 12% of graduates in the world's big economies - approaching the share of the UK, Germany and France put together. The incumbent superpower, the United States, still towers above with 26% of the graduates.

South Korea now has the sixth biggest share of the world's graduates, ahead of countries such as France and Italy.

It means that the US and European countries have to compete on skills with these rising Asian powers.

But the US university system remains a formidably well-funded generator of research. A league table, generated for the first time this month, looked at the global universities with research making the greatest impact - with US universities taking 40 out of the top 50 places.

Their wealth was emphasised this week with the announcement of financial figures from the two Boston university powerhouses, Harvard and MIT, which had a combined endowment of £27bn.

"The triangle of innovation, education and skills is of extreme importance, defining both the problem and the solution," said the OECD's secretary general, Jose Angel Gurria.

"It's a world of cut-throat competition. We lost so much wealth, we lost so many exports, we lost so much well-being, we lost jobs, job, jobs," he told delegates in Paris.

"We must re-boot our economies with a more intelligent type of growth."

Chart showing graduate share

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VIDEO: Build up a cash cushion, says Alvin Hall

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30 September 2011 Last updated at 10:22 GMT Help

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Climate 'could hit Canadian GDP'

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29 September 2011 Last updated at 23:19 GMT Broken ice in Baffin Bay Current federal estimates say climate change will cost Canada about $5bn a year by 2020 Negative effects of climate change could cost Canada the equivalent of 1% of its GDP by 2050 and 2.5% by 2075, a government-backed report has said.

Damage could reach C$41bn ($20bn; £27bn), estimates say, depending on global emissions, the economy and population growth.

Higher temperatures could kill forests, flood low-lying coastal areas and spread disease, the report said.

The panel denied that Canada would gain from global warming.

"Climate change presents a growing, long-term economic burden for Canada," said Canada's National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy (NRTEE).

'Strong, stable, responsible'

In a 162-page report, measures proposed included enhanced forest fire protection, pest control and an effort to foster the growth of climate-resilient trees.

The panel also recommended limiting construction in in low-lying coastal areas vulnerable to flooding, and developing technologies to limit pollution and slow ozone accumulation.

It said climate-related costs to Canada could increase from C$5bn in 2020 to between C$21bn and C$43bn by 2050.

These figures depended on co-ordinated global action to limit warming to 2C by 2050, the report said.

The findings of the panel were seized on by opposition politicians who believe the Conservative government should be doing more to confront the threat of global warming.

"Our coastal communities, our forestry industry, and the health of Canadians will all suffer unless we take action right now," said Laurin Liu, of the New Democrats, Canada's main opposition party.

"This out-of-touch government has produced no plan to deal with the impact of climate change," he added.

But Environment Minister Peter Kent said Canada needs "a strong, stable, environmentally responsible ... government to take care of the environment, and that is exactly what we are doing".

The report also said Canada had much to gain from an international, Kyoto-style treaty focussing on cutting carbon emissions beyond 2012.


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